Top HVAC Markets: Best Counties for HVAC Contractors
The strongest markets for HVAC contractors, ranked by permit demand. HVAC-permit share is shown for feed-covered counties; others are ranked by overall volume and labeled.
Which counties rank highest in this list?
As of April 2026, the strongest HVAC markets by building-permit demand include St. Johns, Sumter, Lake. Real HVAC-permit share is shown for 18 feed-covered counties; others are ranked by overall permit volume and labeled. Source: U.S. Census BPS + PermitMap permit feed.
Trade-level share is real for 18 permit-feed counties; remaining counties are ranked by overall permit volume and labeled.
Rankings — April 2026
| # | County | HVAC share | Permits | MoM | YoY | Demand Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Johns County · FL | 49% | 260 | +5.3% | -15.1% | 33 |
| 2 | Sumter County · FL | 40% | 303 | -0.3% | -11.2% | 33 |
| 3 | Lake County · FL | 32% | 357 | +13% | +7.1% | 50 |
| 4 | Alachua County · FL | 29% | 242 | +130.5% | +90.6% | 67 |
| 5 | Travis County · TX | 28% | 579 | -25.1% | -11.4% | 22 |
| 6 | Volusia County · FL | 26% | 181 | +5.2% | -17% | 29 |
| 7 | Marion County · FL | 21% | 588 | -4.9% | -11.1% | 39 |
| 8 | Hillsborough County · FL | 18% | 431 | -21.2% | -3.9% | 30 |
| 9 | Osceola County · FL | 17% | 612 | +44% | -16.4% | 55 |
| 10 | Clay County · FL | 17% | 132 | -10.8% | -19% | 19 |
| 11 | Manatee County · FL | 17% | 635 | -15.7% | +47.4% | 56 |
| 12 | Miami-Dade County · FL | 17% | 697 | -36.5% | +55.9% | 50 |
| 13 | Pasco County · FL | 16% | 823 | +12.6% | +16.5% | 68 |
| 14 | St. Lucie County · FL | 14% | 275 | +5.4% | -17.7% | 32 |
| 15 | Palm Beach County · FL | 12% | 942 | +169.9% | +3.4% | 74 |
| 16 | Pinellas County · FL | 10% | 170 | +8.3% | +59.8% | 54 |
| 17 | Polk County · FL | 8% | 610 | -9.5% | -20.7% | 33 |
| 18 | Sarasota County · FL | 1% | 409 | +5.1% | -11.2% | 39 |
| 19 | Harris County · TX | — | 2,260 | +0% | +3.3% | 72 |
| 20 | Tarrant County · TX | — | 1,425 | -6.3% | -26.2% | 39 |
| 21 | Collin County · TX | — | 1,376 | -28.4% | +1.4% | 41 |
| 22 | Montgomery County · TX | — | 1,209 | +2.2% | +2.8% | 54 |
| 23 | Denton County · TX | — | 1,043 | +46.9% | -2.8% | 62 |
| 24 | Duval County · FL | — | 956 | +104.3% | -7.4% | 69 |
| 25 | Fort Bend County · TX | — | 859 | -3.4% | +3.9% | 45 |
Showing the top 25 of 78 ranked counties. Permits and month-over-month: U.S. Census Building Permits Survey (April 2026). Year-over-year: FRED. Demand Index is a modeled 0–100 composite. Dashes indicate a source did not report for that county this period.
Six-month trajectory
Total permits authorized across all tracked counties, Nov 2025 → April 2026.
| Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
| 22,363 | 28,785 | 24,516 | 30,614 | 29,404 | 31,285 |
Market concentration
How concentrated demand is at the top of the ranking.
of permits in this ranking come from the top 5 counties.
Single-family share: 77% of authorized units (vs multifamily 5+).
Frequently asked questions
Which counties rank highest in this list?
As of April 2026, the strongest HVAC markets by building-permit demand include St. Johns, Sumter, Lake. Real HVAC-permit share is shown for 18 feed-covered counties; others are ranked by overall permit volume and labeled. Source: U.S. Census BPS + PermitMap permit feed.
What is the top market right now?
St. Johns County (April 2026) leads this ranking with 260 permits authorized and a Construction Demand Index of 33/100 (modeled).
How often is this updated?
Every month, when new U.S. Census Building Permits Survey data is released. Rankings, charts, and figures regenerate automatically from the same dataset that powers PermitMap's county pages and monthly intelligence editions.
Methodology & sources
Permit counts and month-over-month change come from the U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey (period 2026-04); year-over-year from FRED. The Construction Demand Index is a modeled 0–100 composite of volume, momentum, and year-over-year trend, labeled as modeled wherever it appears. Trade- and storm-level detail uses PermitMap's permit feed where available and overall volume elsewhere (labeled). This collection regenerates each month from the same dataset that powers PermitMap's county pages and monthly editions.
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